The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Determination of burn‐in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products

Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

北斗系统新民用导航电文历书参数算法与性能分析

研究新公布的北斗民用导航电文中的两类历书与北斗二号导航电文历书的差异，对比分析各类历书对接收机首次定位时间的影响。利用实际的历书数据，比较不同历书类型的用户算法，分析不同龄期数据对接收机首次定位性能的影响。结果表明，高精度历书在1周的数据龄期内性能较为稳定，中等精度历书精度稍逊于高精度历书，但由于简化了电文空间，能接近高精度历书性能。简约历书进一步简化了参数数目和电文空间，尽管位置误差达到了数百千米，但却能在数月之后保持相应精度，有利于缩短接收机首次定位时间。     

基于改进协同遗传算法的有效载荷系统功能序列规划方法

针对传统回溯算法在求解基于知识模型的有效载荷系统功能序列规划问题中搜索效率低的问题,提出一种基于"择劣变异"(Worst Individual Mutation,WIM)策略的协同遗传算法(Co-evolutionary Genetic Algorithm,CGA)的改进算法WIM-CGA。该算法在遗传过程中采用双路线进化方案,即"择优实施标准遗传过程,择劣实施变异操作",达到提高求解精确度及搜索效率的目的。仿真结果表明,同等测试条件下,当功能规模为50,约束密度为1.0时,WIM-CGA算法在限定时间内最优解的平均精确度比优化的回溯算法提高了54.15%,比CGA算法提高了6.18%,且当所得解的精确度大于90%时,WIM-CGA算法比CGA算法的迭代次数减少了65.79%,耗时降低了48.97%,显著提高了功能序列规划的效率。     

Cell structure of microcellular combustible object foamed by supercritical carbon dioxide

In order to solve the issue that the combustible objects for cased telescoped ammunition (CTA) didn't burn completely during the combustion process, the microcellular combustible objects were foamed with numerous cells in the micron order to improve the combustion performance by the supercritical carbon dioxide (SCCO₂) foaming technology. As the cell structure determined the combustion properties of microcellular combustible objects, the solubility of SCCO₂ dissolved into the combustible objects was obtained from the gravimetric method, and scanning electron microscope (SEM) was applied to characterize the cell structure under various process conditions of solubility, foaming temperature and foaming time. SEM images indicate that the cell diameter of microcellular combustible objects is in the level of 1 μm and the cell density is about 10¹¹ cell⋅cm⁻³. The microcellular combustible objects fabricated by the SCCO₂ foaming technology are smooth and uniform, and the high specific surface area of cell structure can lead to the significant combustion performance of microcellular combustible object for CTA in the future.     

电子时间引信检测仿真试验研究

为提高电子时间引信的检测能力，介绍了电子时间引信检测仿真试验，分析了仿真试验的原理，给出了检测仿真试验的试验方法。经实际检测表明，该检测仿真试验能够安全可靠地完成电子时间引信的日常检测任务。     

The building evacuation problem with shared information

In this article, the Building Evacuation Problem with Shared Information (BEPSI) is formulated as a mixed integer linear program, where the objective is to determine the set of routes along which to send evacuees (supply) from multiple locations throughout a building (sources) to the exits (sinks) such that the total time until all evacuees reach the exits is minimized. The formulation explicitly incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing online instructions to evacuees, ensuring that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. Arc travel time and capacity, as well as supply at the nodes, are permitted to vary with time and capacity is assumed to be recaptured over time. The BEPSI is shown to be NP‐hard. An exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Computational results from numerical experiments on a real‐world network representing a four‐story building are given. Results of experiments employing Benders cuts generated in solving a given problem instance as initial cuts in addressing an updated problem instance are also provided. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

谈角色扮演在英语教学中的应用

角色扮演法是英语教学中一种极为有效的教学方法。它不仅能够激发学生的学习热情和学习兴趣,更重要的是给学生提供了运用第二语言的真实情境,在实际环境中巩固和强化所学知识。     

海洋环境中基于WVD的LFM信号检测方法

海洋环境中弱信号的谱与海杂波的谱相混叠 ,目标和背景的位置差异很小 ,经典的频域或空域处理对海杂波中弱信号的检测难以奏效。鉴于Wigner-Ville分布 (WVD)对线性调频信号 (LFM )具有时频聚集性这一特点 ,提出了一种海洋环境中基于WVD的LFM信号检测方法。利用雷达采集的真实海杂波数据 ,在不同信杂比的条件下 ,研究了该方法与经典频域法在信号检测中的差别。通过实验分析 ,与经典方法相比 ,该方法具有明显的优越性 ,且信杂比达到 -14 . 3dB时 ,其仍能很好地对信号进行检测。